Summer Forecast 2022 headlines:
Overall, a warmer than average summer is favoured possibly average to recent 1991-2020 baseline.
A wetter than average summer is quite likely for UK and wider NW Europe with entrenched strong La Nina conditions, with rainfall fairly evenly distributed.
The driest month of summer and expected to feature hottest weather will likely be in July however August could well surprise.
V high temperatures are still possible >35C, in the past with this background this would have been rather unlikely but with warming of European climate we can't be certain.
A justification and explanation for the above outline of summer 2022 will be given in subsequent paragraphs in terms of the factors at the play including: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs).
Seasonal Forecast Models
We are fortunate there is an extensive selection of seasonal models available over JJA (June, July, August). It is worth emphasising that these are three month smoothed averages therefore a cooler month against two warmer months would be totally muted out.
As can be seen from below selection of best NWP the picture is a sea of warmth excluding some northern areas of Scandinavia, where a near normal summer is favoured.
European model which exhibits some of the largest skill is among warmest with large area of continental Europe and S/SE England 1-2C above average, this might not sound like much but for an average over three months it is a very striking signal for a very warm summer. There is quite significant overlap with French model which is interesting indeed. The UK Met Office are also anticipating a warmer summer but nothing unusual which is my thinking as well.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
A La Nina summer is highly favoured throughout summer 2022, this requires sea surface temperatures in 3.4 area of equatorial Pacific at least 0.5C below average, last time this was achieved was in summer 2011 which was extremely unsettled. This phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the cold sea phase has a direct cooling influence on tropical weather patterns. It also has influence on weather patterns at higher latitudes think of a slinky being stretched the reverberations travel wide changes to direction of jet stream ect.
Some debate how much influence ENSO has on UK summer but I am a believer it has a significant role, and it is one of the main reasons I consider an unsettled summer likely, it is over a decade since we have seen similar ENSO. The really poor summer period 2007-2012 was characterised by this destructive, strongly coupled, ocean-atmosphere La Nina background state. Typically with La Nina summers usually later in summer is more affected with an early onset of autumn this was indeed the case last summer where it emerged. September now seems to often play by its own rule book nowadays.
Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
Summer 2022 will be the third consecutive year with La Nina present the last "triple dip La Nina" was in 1998-2001 and there were only 2 other occasions in the 20th century demonstrating how rare these entrenched La Nina conditions are. We see that SST anomalies over North Pacific and North Atlantic early in summer are really quite similar to these years as well as 2011, which as previously stated was last summer strongly Nina throughout. The warm waters around UK and Ireland and indeed notably in the Mediterranean Sea are intuitively a good thing for a warm summer, however, warmer water causes the air above ocean to warm and rise which leaves an area of lower pressure. Suggestive of a more conducive environment for downpours and heavy rainfall as a result summer 2022 could be prone.
Current SST anomalies
June
The analogs for this summer (1998-2001 + 2011) show a strongly westerly driven June with most unsettled conditions in Northern UK, does not paint well for a flaming June. A very warm and dry June in the Mediterranean is favoured might be good to look at last minute deals.
July
The best fit year years show a horrific July across Europe been many years since there has been similar. Cool and extremely unsettled particularly centred on Central Europe, let's hope this does not pass as I believe July could see the best weather of the summer. It is likely though it will not be perfect summer month - mixed at times.
August
Strangely on what we are used to seeing August is shown to the best summer month - not for Scandinavia I might add. Low pressure is signalled to southwest of Ireland low pressure in this area is often associated with heat in Western Europe working like a pump. August potentially is one to watch it would be unwise to dismiss it based on what seems to dominate in 2000s.
Recap Summer Forecast 2022 headlines:
Overall, a warmer than average summer is favoured possibly average to recent 1991-2020 baseline.
Good chance one summer month has below average temperatures.
A wetter than average summer is quite likely in NW Europe with entrenched strong La Nina conditions possibly a harsh and dry summer in the Mediterranean.
July most likely to feature hottest weather of summer but August could be a dark horse typically with La Nina summers August likes to go pear-shaped could be untraditional.
V high temperatures are still possible >35C, in the past with this background this would have been rather unlikely but with warming of European climate we can't be certain.
There you go that is my summer forecast for 2022 I hope it made for a good reading. Please share with your family and friends. Donations to keep the site running are also highly appreciated but not expected.
Comments